The Truth About Where Home Prices Are Really Heading
Team Olivieri
Monday, July 14, 2025
If you’ve been seeing headlines shouting about a looming housing market crash — take a deep breath. The reality behind the dramatic clickbait is far more reassuring, and the numbers back it up.
Yes, in some local areas, home prices are leveling off or dipping slightly as more inventory comes to market. But that’s normal when supply grows — and the bigger picture shows something very different than what the doom-and-gloom headlines would have you believe.
Here’s what’s actually happening:
According to the latest Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae — which surveys over 100 of North America’s top housing market experts — prices are expected to keep rising over the next 5 years. Just at a steadier, healthier pace than the spikes we saw during the pandemic years.
Let’s break down their forecast:
So, do all the experts agree on the exact same number? Of course not — but here’s the real takeaway: not a single credible expert group is calling for a major national price drop or crash. Instead, they see prices rising at a more moderate, sustainable pace — and that’s a sign of a healthy housing market for everyone.
Remember, different local markets move at different speeds. Some neighbourhoods may see flatter prices or slight dips this year as inventory balances out, while other areas stay hotter than the national trend because demand still outpaces supply. But overall, steady price growth is far better for buyers and sellers than unsustainable spikes or dramatic declines.
Plus, the fundamentals behind today’s market are strong: lending standards are tight, foreclosure rates are historically low, and homeowners have built up near-record levels of equity. Together, these factors help protect the housing market from the kind of massive forced sales that drove prices down back in 2008.
So, if you’re waiting for a big crash to time your next move — you may be waiting a long time.
Let’s Bring This Home
The truth is, the housing market is on track for slow and steady growth — with local ups and downs that depend on your neighbourhood. National trends matter, but your best move always comes down to what’s happening in your street, your city, your zip code.
Curious what this means for your buying or selling plans? Let’s connect for a quick chat about what our latest local stats mean for you — and how you can plan your next step with confidence.
Yes, in some local areas, home prices are leveling off or dipping slightly as more inventory comes to market. But that’s normal when supply grows — and the bigger picture shows something very different than what the doom-and-gloom headlines would have you believe.
Here’s what’s actually happening:
According to the latest Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae — which surveys over 100 of North America’s top housing market experts — prices are expected to keep rising over the next 5 years. Just at a steadier, healthier pace than the spikes we saw during the pandemic years.
Let’s break down their forecast:
- The average projection is about 3.3% price growth per year through 2029.
- The most optimistic experts see prices growing closer to 5% per year.
- Even the most conservative experts still expect around 1.3% annual growth.
So, do all the experts agree on the exact same number? Of course not — but here’s the real takeaway: not a single credible expert group is calling for a major national price drop or crash. Instead, they see prices rising at a more moderate, sustainable pace — and that’s a sign of a healthy housing market for everyone.
Remember, different local markets move at different speeds. Some neighbourhoods may see flatter prices or slight dips this year as inventory balances out, while other areas stay hotter than the national trend because demand still outpaces supply. But overall, steady price growth is far better for buyers and sellers than unsustainable spikes or dramatic declines.
Plus, the fundamentals behind today’s market are strong: lending standards are tight, foreclosure rates are historically low, and homeowners have built up near-record levels of equity. Together, these factors help protect the housing market from the kind of massive forced sales that drove prices down back in 2008.
So, if you’re waiting for a big crash to time your next move — you may be waiting a long time.
Let’s Bring This Home
The truth is, the housing market is on track for slow and steady growth — with local ups and downs that depend on your neighbourhood. National trends matter, but your best move always comes down to what’s happening in your street, your city, your zip code.
Curious what this means for your buying or selling plans? Let’s connect for a quick chat about what our latest local stats mean for you — and how you can plan your next step with confidence.
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