Is the Ontario Housing Market Slowing Down? What January’s Numbers Really Mean
Team Olivieri
Monday, February 23, 2026
If you’ve seen headlines saying “home sales fell sharply in January”, it probably made you pause—especially if you’re thinking about selling your home in Brantford or anywhere in Southern Ontario.
Yes, home sales did slow down in January. But once you add context—seasonality, winter weather, and how sales are actually tracked—it tells a very different story.
January almost always dips.
Year after year, real estate activity eases off after the holidays. Over the last several years, sales have typically slowed in January, then picked up again in February and into the spring market. This January’s drop was steeper than some years, but there’s a clear reason for that too.
Across much of North America, major winter storms rolled through and disrupted normal activity. When inspections, appraisals, and final walk-throughs get delayed because of snow, ice, or road conditions, many deals simply close a bit later, not never.
And that’s a key point:
So those “missing” sales often aren’t lost—they’re just shifted on the calendar.
In other words, buyers haven’t given up—they’re just navigating weather, timing, and financing like everyone else.
This is why local insight matters more than national headlines. Your neighbourhood, price point, and property type can behave very differently than a broad national average.
If you’re thinking about selling this year and want clarity on what’s really happening in Brantford and surrounding areas, let’s talk. A quick, local market check-in can give you the context the headlines leave out—and help you decide on the right timing and strategy for your move.
Yes, home sales did slow down in January. But once you add context—seasonality, winter weather, and how sales are actually tracked—it tells a very different story.
What’s Really Behind the Slowdown?
National data shows the pace of existing home sales fell in January compared to December, roughly in the high single-digit range. That sounds dramatic until you remember one important thing:January almost always dips.
Year after year, real estate activity eases off after the holidays. Over the last several years, sales have typically slowed in January, then picked up again in February and into the spring market. This January’s drop was steeper than some years, but there’s a clear reason for that too.
Across much of North America, major winter storms rolled through and disrupted normal activity. When inspections, appraisals, and final walk-throughs get delayed because of snow, ice, or road conditions, many deals simply close a bit later, not never.
And that’s a key point:
- Existing home sales stats reflect closed deals, not the new offers written.
- When closings are pushed back a few weeks by weather, they move from January into February’s numbers.
So those “missing” sales often aren’t lost—they’re just shifted on the calendar.
Why This Doesn’t Mean Demand Has Disappeared
While January closings were softer, other pieces of the picture point to a market that’s still very much alive:- Affordability has improved as mortgage rates eased off their peak from 2023.
- Buyers in many areas have a bit more negotiating power than they did during the ultra-competitive pandemic years.
- Locally in Southern Ontario, we’re still seeing well-priced, well-presented homes attract strong interest, even in winter.
In other words, buyers haven’t given up—they’re just navigating weather, timing, and financing like everyone else.
What This Means If You’re Thinking About Selling
If you’re a homeowner in Brantford, Cambridge, Kitchener, or surrounding Ontario communities and you’re seeing those scary headlines, here’s what to remember:- A slower January does not mean the Ontario housing market is crashing.
- Many January sales have likely just been delayed into February and March, right as the traditional spring real estate market ramps up.
- With improved affordability and more balanced conditions, serious buyers are still out there and looking for the right home.
This is why local insight matters more than national headlines. Your neighbourhood, price point, and property type can behave very differently than a broad national average.
Moving Forward with Confidence
Don’t let a single, weather-impacted month convince you the Ontario real estate market is losing steam. The bigger picture still points to activity building as we head into spring, especially for homes that are well-priced and well-prepared for market.If you’re thinking about selling this year and want clarity on what’s really happening in Brantford and surrounding areas, let’s talk. A quick, local market check-in can give you the context the headlines leave out—and help you decide on the right timing and strategy for your move.
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